A more elegant way to compute this would be to divide the Sum of the Absolute Error by the Sum of the Actual Quantity. Although this is an excel workaround, this actually preserves the impact of the actual being zero in calculating the total forecast error. Sum of All ‘MAX' values. 4. In such a scenario, Sales/Forecast will measure Sales attainment.

Use the ABS function to returns the absolute value of a number. NÃ¤chstes Video 3-5 Bias - How good is the Forecast - Dauer: 3:22 Excel Analytics 700 Aufrufe 3:22 Calculating Bias and Efficiency of Statistics - Dauer: 14:08 Q Liu 9.818 Aufrufe An Archive of past questions and informative discussions are available for registered users of this site. To be consistent, the safety stock at XY is based on the demand forecast error at this DC.

Melde dich an, um dieses Video zur Playlist "SpÃ¤ter ansehen" hinzuzufÃ¼gen. In reality the MAPE on your active SKU is 80% or 20% accuracy. Yes No Great! This will artificially inflate the forecast performance of the planner on a weighted basis and hence hide poor forecasting on active open stock items.

I collect forecasts from the sales reps and attempt to turn them into a production plan for the manufacturing plant. Hochgeladen am 12.09.2009We enter the formulas that measure the accuracy of the forecast. Does this help? Unattended forecast error can be the root of most organization ills.

Most people are comfortable thinking in percentage terms, making the MAPE easy to interpret. Figure 493 Size of opportunity for negative consequences.3. The equation for FORECAST is a+bx, where: and: and where x and y are the sample means AVERAGE(known_x's) and AVERAGE(known y's). Wenn du bei YouTube angemeldet bist, kannst du dieses Video zu einer Playlist hinzufÃ¼gen.

It does not matter what the lead time is between XY and MX, the customer's distribution point. 2. Our recommendation is to exclude the Obsolete Skus from measurement and in computing the aggregate MAPE as a performance measure for the planner or for the Sales Manager responsible. However, there are two kinds of problems in forecasting. Share Share this post on Digg Del.icio.us Technorati Twitter Reply With Quote Aug 5th, 2010,04:14 PM #2 Matty Board Regular Join Date Feb 2007 Location England Posts 3,551 Re: Forecast Accuracy

Which version do I have? In fact, we will go on to say that the single most important metric in the entire organization is Sales Forecast accuracy. This article describes the formula syntax and usage of the FORECASTÂ function in Microsoft Excel. Wird geladen... Ãœber YouTube Presse Urheberrecht YouTuber Werbung Entwickler +YouTube Nutzungsbedingungen Datenschutz Richtlinien und Sicherheit Feedback senden Probier mal was Neues aus!

Reply Christopher R said 03/07/14 12:16pm A better way is to identify the contribution to the total miss (at what ever denomination)… Reply Girish Sharma said 12/01/15 02:44am Thank you for Powered by vBulletin Version 4.2.3 Copyright © 2016 vBulletin Solutions, Inc. Should we divide the Error by Actual or Forecast? Could you detail the results you'd expect to see give the Forecast and Actual values posted and I'll see whether I can help further.

We can calculate a price weighted MAPE or a discrete-weighted MAPE that ranks items based on importance. 7. Known Y Known X 6 20 7 28 9 31 15 38 21 40 Formula Description Result =FORECAST(30,A2:A6,B2:B6) Predicts a value for y given an x value of 30 10.607253 Share All error measurement statistics can be problematic when aggregated over multiple items and as a forecaster you need to carefully think through your approach when doing so. HinzufÃ¼gen Playlists werden geladen...

For i â‰¤ n, the ith error ei is then Our goal is to find a forecast that minimize the errors. Learn more You're viewing YouTube in German. Melde dich an, um unangemessene Inhalte zu melden. It is calculated using the relative error between the naïve model (i.e., next period’s forecast is this period’s actual) and the currently selected model.

Relax and unplug with our award-winning coverage. The MAD/Mean ratio is an alternative to the MAPE that is better suited to intermittent and low-volume data. This is defined as the Average Absolute Error divided by the Average of the Actual Quantity. Wird geladen...

Please tell it there is a better or easier way. Harvi Millar 76.704 Aufrufe 16:37 MFE, MAPE, moving average - Dauer: 15:51 East Tennessee State University 29.852 Aufrufe 15:51 Forecasting With Excel - Dauer: 7:09 BYUHawaii 134.462 Aufrufe 7:09 Mean Absolute Melde dich bei YouTube an, damit dein Feedback gezÃ¤hlt wird. If you are working with a low-volume item then the MAD is a good choice, while the MAPE and other percentage-based statistics should be avoided.

SpÃ¤ter erinnern Jetzt lesen Datenschutzhinweis fÃ¼r YouTube, ein Google-Unternehmen Navigation Ã¼berspringen DEHochladenAnmeldenSuchen Wird geladen... SchlieÃŸen Weitere Informationen View this message in English Du siehst YouTube auf Deutsch. More... Thanks Reply Leave a Reply Cancel reply Your email address will not be published.

Accuracy should be from 0% to 100% Share Share this post on Digg Del.icio.us Technorati Twitter Reply With Quote Aug 5th, 2010,04:58 PM #4 Matty Board Regular Join Date Feb 2007 Anmelden 5 0 Dieses Video gefÃ¤llt dir nicht? This site contains affiliate links. The choice for president is between big change now… The M&A Playbook Guiding Growth Strategy in Changing Markets Reality Check The digital revolution in payments is not as… Accounting & Tax

Forecast Accuracy = max (1 - forecast error, 0) If Actuals are 25 and forecast is 100, then error is 75 implying a 300% error. Matty Its financial data..some months you make money and some you don't Share Share this post on Digg Del.icio.us Technorati Twitter Reply With Quote Aug 5th, 2010,11:03 PM #9 LarryM13 New You could also weight the MAPE either by Price or by subjective weights assigned on the basis of criticality to supply chain. Please note these are random figures Jan-10Feb-10Mar-10Apr-10May-10Jun-10Jul-10Aug-10Actual$10,000 $8,000 ($9,000)$5,000 ($60,000)($57,000)($45,000)($100,000)Forecast$15,000 $5,000 $5,000 ($9,000)($57,000)($60,000)($1,000)$5,000 Thank you very much in advance!

SpÃ¤ter erinnern Jetzt lesen Datenschutzhinweis fÃ¼r YouTube, ein Google-Unternehmen Navigation Ã¼berspringen DEHochladenAnmeldenSuchen Wird geladen... If we divide by Actuals, and when actuals are zero, MAPE is undefined (excel gives #DIV/zero error). MAPE calculated in the above is actually a volume-weighted MAPE. Description Calculates, or predicts, a future value by using existing values.

In this specific situation, what you really need to observe is the Unit forecast error which will abstract away from profit margins. You may want to reward the sales person who actually met his sales targets in units (or exceeded slightly) and exceeded the profit variance significantly. Sometimes these two calculations are the same.