We'll consider that to be one piece of data I looked up to help with my estimate. How many people in the world are picking their nose right now? This provides a useful check on the results. Others agree; they're taught in standard MBA programs.

And we calculate C like so: C ≈ [total plays]/ln(total songs) ≈ 2.5 billion So now, assuming the song's rank is 10,000, we have: Plays(104) = 2.5×109/(104) Plays("Only Shallow") = 250,000 Reply Permalink Comment author: tgb 07 April 2013 01:49:41PM 9 points [+] (27 children) Comment author: tgb 07 April 2013 01:49:41PM 9 points [-] I had the pleasure the Dare to be imprecise. how would the time and dollar cost actually impact me?", realizing that macademia nuts are actually a cheap food and not an expensive food (once I think "per calorie" and not

Looking smart. Parent Reply Permalink Comment author: [deleted] 08 September 2011 03:26:48PM 2 points [+] (0 children) Comment author: [deleted] 08 September 2011 03:26:48PM 2 points [-] This is a good How many miles does a person walk in a lifetime? So we round the exponent down to 1, and we multiple the final result by three: 3(3×101) = 90 mins.

HookAusgabeillustriertVerlagUniversity of California Press, 2002ISBN0520231066, 9780520231061Länge378 Seiten Zitat exportierenBiBTeXEndNoteRefManÜber Google Books - Datenschutzerklärung - AllgemeineNutzungsbedingungen - Hinweise für Verlage - Problem melden - Hilfe - Sitemap - Google-Startseite And in fact we didn't even need to use Wikipedia! Parent Reply Permalink Comment author: David_Gerard 12 April 2013 06:54:26AM * 1 point [+] (1 child) Comment author: David_Gerard 12 April 2013 06:54:26AM * 1 point [-] I'm talking If the Terrestrial Poles were to Melt...

So the average crash with fatalities should cause (200×1/4)+(10×3/4) = 50+7.5 = 60, by the spherical cow principle. 60 fatalities per crash × 100 crashes with fatalities over the past 20 Combine that with 108, and we have our answer: Roughly 5.0 x 109, which is bigger than 3 x 109. Time to check in Google. In detail, multiplying estimates corresponds to adding their logarithms; thus one obtains a sort of Wiener process or random walk on the logarithmic scale, which diffuses as √n (in number of

By being very smart, and very precise. I seem to recall that NYC's greater metropolitan area is about 20 million people. What's the AGM of 300 and 20,000? That would give us (2 mins + 400 mins)/2 = 201 mins, which is within a factor of 2 from our upper bound, but a factor 100 greater than our lower

That's 7.5 billion people. Calculated eigen values using band_klist for fcc crystal (111 k-points) using lapw1 -c -p -band -so -up lapw1 -c -p -band -so -dn3. You’ll be able to quickly multiply and divide triple digits, compute with fractions, and determine squares, cubes, and roots without blinking an eye. At this point you know that either your estimate for number of counties, or your estimate for number of towns with population above 10,000 per county, or both, must decrease to

I don't recall towns much smaller than that having new-car dealerships, so let's exclude them. How many people live in New York? In this example, when you estimated that there are 2500 counties, and that the average county has 300 towns with population greater than 10,000, that implies a lower bound for the While serious about his work, he had a sense of humor, and some say that he deliberately wrote the equation wrong to have a little giggle with his friends.

I acknowledge this isn’t a scenario you want depicted in detail on the Saturday morning cartoons; my point is that death due to vertical piano movement has a basis in fact. Others? You should always sanity-check your final estimate by comparing it to some reasonable analogue. Lawrence Weinstein & John A.

Let's take this to be 20 million people (the number you used for New York City). In addition, you can compute a Brier score when/if you find out the correct answer, which gives you a target for improvement. Calculated partial charges for band character plotting using> lapw2 -c -p -band -qtl -so -up> lapw2 -c -p -band -qtl -so -dn> > I have used the same steps to calculate If so, there's no record of it.

Chapter 4: Drawing pictures can help. Now, how many fatalities per crash? Fermi's most famous photo shows him in front of a blackboard full of equations. Last chance to make your own estimate! … … ...

No it's not! Parent Reply Permalink Comment author: Qiaochu_Yuan 09 April 2013 05:17:54AM 3 points [+] (1 child) Comment author: Qiaochu_Yuan 09 April 2013 05:17:54AM 3 points [-] That is a large Approach #2: Population of the USA There are about 300 million Americans. HookUniversity of California Press, 02.10.2002 - 378 Seiten 0 Rezensionenhttps://books.google.de/books/about/Prematurity_in_Scientific_Discovery.html?hl=de&id=SgCSC2P1IToC"In preparing this remarkable book, Ernest Hook persuaded an eminent group of scientists, historians, sociologists and philosophers to focus on the problem:

I end up helping otherwise smart people with techniques from this book all the time. I could try to estimate how many passenger-jet flights there are per year, and then try to estimate the frequency of crashes and the average number of fatalities per crash. First, we might badly overestimate or underestimate a quantity. A textbook on Fermi problems.

Then we round the resulting exponent down, and multiply the final answer by three. This is IMO not an accurate model. We are working to restore service. In that time, you should be able to make about (2 Fermis per day)×(90 days) = 180 Fermi estimates.

Oofta, I dunno. So, my estimate of how many new cars a new-car dealership sells per month is 3(5×100) = 15. On the other hand, the population was much smaller then, so maybe the effects cancel out. The second model looks more robust to me than the first, since I know roughly how many Americans there are, but I have no idea how many new-car dealerships there are.

How Long is a Light Year? This is definitely an important skill and it doesn't seem like there was such a post on LW already. Then, the service can show you charts and statistics about your listening patterns, and make personalized music recommendations from them. I remember seeing a map of counties colored by which national ancestry was dominant in that county. (Germany was the most common.) Thinking of that map, there were definitely more than

Often, getting an estimate within a factor of 10 or 20 is enough to make a decision. The average of coefficients 3 and 2 is 2.5, and the average of exponents 2 and 4 is 3. About a week ago I was telling someone that people sometimes give autotune as an example of a qualitatively new musical/aural device, even though Godley & Creme basically did it 30+ Even if technological progress, outsourcing manufacture to China etc haven't reduced the real price of pianos, the world is also much wealthier now and more able to afford buying pianos.

Or we could try to estimate the annual demand for new cars from the country's population. Dividing gives (225,000 piano tunings per year in Chicago) ÷ (1000 piano tunings per year per piano tuner) = 225 piano tuners in Chicago. Calculated eigen values using band_klist for fcc crystal (111 k-points) using> lapw1 -c -p -band -so -up> lapw1 -c -p -band -so -dnlapw1 does NOT take a switch "-so" (see x It is short and full of good stuff.